- 1. Arsenal can go all the way, but only if they start winning the big games
Most of the season so far has seen the MotD team writing off Arsenal’s title winning credentials, dismissing them as continuously lucky. The Alans Hansen and Shearer were not in the slightest put off by the fact, with every week Arsenal sat on top, they were being asked the question yet again, persisting in their belief Arsenal will not win. However, enough of the season has progressed to prove that Arsenal have the potential to be genuine competitors, with new found strength of character to slog through games to win even when their flowing football goes awry. But for Arsenal to go all the way they must start to win more of the big games against their title contenders. The 6-3 annihilation at Man City exemplifies this point, although failing to win at home to Chelsea and Everton should also stand as examples. Even their failure to bring back points from Old Trafford, which is not the feat it would have been in recent seasons, shows up Arsenal’s weakness against strong opposition. This season’s incarnation of Arsenal are more than capable of holding their own against the biggest teams; look at the powerful display to beat Borussia Dortmund in Germany as proof of that. Arsenal cannot afford to give their opponents the advantage in such a close season, and to be the ones waving the trophy at the end of the season they must improve their record against the big teams.
- 2. City and Chelsea are favourites because of their home records
Following on from the previous point, Chelsea and Man City must be considered the strongest title contenders because of their indomitable home records. City’s imperious scoring record at home, with 38 goals and 10 wins from 10 home games is the best in the league. Chelsea, meanwhile, have Mourinho at the helm, and, while many criticisms can be levelled at the Portuguese manager, his home record with every club he’s managed is no small achievement or coincidence; a 150 game unbeaten home run from 2002 to 2011, across four clubs, and a current run of 41 home games without losing, with Real Madrid and Chelsea is a strong testament to Mourinho’s leadership. This gives them the advantage because both Chelsea and City expect to gain points from any opposition at home, making the problem for Arsenal in particular that they cannot steal victories from the big two away from the Emirates. This in turn puts enormous pressure on Wenger’s side to get maximum points at home, something they have struggled to do thus far. The near guarantee of home points provides a solid base from which to launch title challenges, and the records should not be overlooked.
- 3. Owners have no respect for fans, and money should not be the only qualifier for ownership
The first half of the season has made it clear exactly how much influence the most important part of any club, the fans, really have in an era of private ownership and global representation of the Premier League. Hull City AFC’s 110 year history as the name of the club looks set to be changed, against the wishes of the fans, by owner Assem Allam who considers City to be boring and claiming Hull Tigers is more marketable. The protests of the fans and even the intervention of manager Steve Bruce have fallen on death ears, to the point where Allam, on hearing of the protest group ‘City till we die’, exclaimed ‘they can die as soon as they want’[1]. Similarly Vincent Tan’s less than considerate attitude towards his latest acquisition, Cardiff City, demonstrates a worrying trend. Tan’s decision to turn the Bluebirds’ kit red, because he prefers red and for the colour’s cultural significance in Malaysia, is just one of many slights to the beleaguered supporters in the welsh capital. Tan’s actions have almost single handedly ruined what should have been a joyous maiden season in the Premier League. His undermining and finally sacking of popular Malky Mackay, and the display of unbelievable ignorance of football are sadly endemic of the ownership Premier League clubs today are saddled with. The Football Association has the final say on who buys a club, but more than wealth should be considered when the centre of a community is at stake.
- 4. English clubs are falling behind European rivals because of the number of competitive teams in the league
England has easily the most competitive domestic league in Europe, with Arsenal, Man United, Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and arguably Tottenham and Everton all being major contenders, both in the league and in the transfer market. This I see as a key problem for Premier League clubs when competing in Europe for several reasons. Firstly and most importantly, it spreads the limited pool of genuine world talent very thinly across the league, which is not the case in the Bundesliga or La Liga. There are a finite number of top players who are willing to work in the Premier League, as many, for language or family reasons, choose to stay away. But with so many competitive and wealthy teams, no club has really been able to establish a monopoly of talent. Compare this to Bayern Munich, who are the inevitable destination of world class talent in Germany; Gotze jumping from Borussia Dortmund, and the impending departure of Lewandowski to Bayern are symptomatic of this. Bayern’s ability to monopolise talent in Germany with little domestic competition in the transfer market is a major factor in their lasting success. Similarly, Barca and Real Madrid attract the major talent in Spain. Another way to look at it is to compile the League’s starting XI; The Premier League would be a monstrous opponent if the talent was pooled, but individual teams look set to struggle in Europe against the biggest continental sides. The second detriment of a competitive league is the conservation of players’ form and fitness over a season. English clubs cannot afford for their key players to rest or go easy for a few games, as any slip up could be the difference between first and sixth, such is the level of competition so far this season. This is not necessarily the case in Europe’s other major leagues. While it is true that Barca’s players statistically play at least as many games as Premier League squads (for example 11 players played 40+ in 2012/13 while 8 did for Man City) the level of competition they face each week is comparably worse, so one may assume the expenditure of effort of Barcelona’s squad is lower over a season than in England. I see this as a contributing factor when looking at the difference between English and other European clubs, especially when they meet in the latter half of the season.
- 5. Moyes’ decision to clean out backroom staff and alter a winning formula is his biggest gamble
Moyes was always going to struggle to replace the irreplaceable; Ferguson had had a quarter of a century to shape the club to suit his own style, so any change would take time. Moyes’ boldest decision, however, was to break even further with the past by removing Rene Meulensteen, the first team coach, Mike Phelan, the assistant manager, the goalkeeping coach Eric Steele and the chief scout Martin Ferguson in favour of his own men. While trying to forge the backroom staff in his own image, and moving to make it his, rather than SAF’s club, was bold but also a huge risk. The men he replaced could have acted as a safety net, a medium term solution to make the daunting task of reforming the club easier to manage by providing a link to the winning past. They also represented a highly successful formula, able to nurture the talent of the squad. In the long term Moyes, by placing his own people in these positions, may benefit, by making it clear it is his team, that things will be done his way and that he has the strength of character to look beyond the shadow of SAF. But in the short term he and his key staff are all locked in a battle to win over squad and fans alike, as well as to come to grips with a new club and a new level of pressure. The discarded staff represented a chance to lessen the level of changes, and Moyes’ move to ignore that chance may prove to be a serious error.
- 6. Buying in the January transfer window is a sign of desperation
The January Transfer window, which for many clubs has been a source of contention for a while, is arguably losing relevance. With Financial Fair Play coming in, the grossly inflated prices in January are scaring away even the most financially secure clubs, who instead look to reinforce in the summer. It is also widely acknowledged that a winter signing often struggles to replicate their earlier form after their move; think of Demba Ba and Fernando Torres. Even when players are unsettled, or looking for first team action to fight for an international call up, moves are increasingly unlikely, because clubs simply don’t want to pay the inflated transfer fees. This then leads to my point about desperation. Clubs that are willing to pay excessive fees with no guarantee of their new player’s form is a clear sign that a club is struggling and is desperate enough to try and buy their way out of it. QPR over recent seasons have shown the danger of this, with huge fees and an eye watering wages bill for mediocre players and ultimately relegation. It may even come to the point where clubs will not want to sign in January simply because of the ridicule they’ll receive, although it is unlikely. But ultimately, the quiet January can be attributed to the fact that clubs will only do deals in January if they see no alternative, and have the financial muscle power to get away with it.
- 7. Entertaining football now comes before winning
The Premier League is often considered the most entertaining league in the world, and that has certainly been the case so far this season. Much of this is down to the emphasis on forward, attacking play. It can be argued that the various owners and fans demand attacking play to the extent that it is almost getting precedence over results. Take for example Cardiff, whose owner Tan, while being nothing of a football man, as previously discussed, rebuked Malky Mackay in his infamous email for not playing entertaining football. How dare he try and win matches? This, you may think, is just because Tan is unrealistic, but also take into account the removal of Tony Pulis from Stoke, despite almost guaranteeing the Potters Premier League status each season. Fans demand to be entertained, and it is not just the lower teams; even the great Jose Mourinho, who has made strategic, some may negative football, an art form. The 4-3 win against Sunderland is the most notably uncharacteristic Mourinho result to date. Prior to the game against Arsenal, Mourinho seemed to be wrestling with the need to win and the demand to entertain, saying “We may have to take a step back in order to be more consistent at the back… I’m giving it serious thought. If I want to win 1-0, I think I can, as I think it’s one of the easiest things in football.”[2] It is a sign of the importance associated with entertaining football that Mourinho must struggle with the priority of winning and the demand to entertain.
- 8. Pundits don’t know as much as they think
The match pundits, comprised of such footballing legends as Alan Shearer and Roy Keane often present their opinions, based on little more information than the average football fan, as an infallible truth. However, over the season it has finally become clear how knowledge as a footballer doesn’t necessarily translate into punditry. Michael Owen, who regularly professes on twitter that he has forgotten more about football than most people will ever know[3], seems no better at predicting or analysing than anyone else who cares about football. Take for example his criticisms of Arsenal; that they lack world class players, that Ӧzil is overrated, are not a top four side and are a smaller club than Liverpool. These all seem, for someone who knows so much about football, rather questionable attitudes and, regarding Liverpool and Arsenal’s respective sizes, somewhat biased on Owen’s part. Of course, Owen may eventually be vindicated regarding Arsenal’s top four position, but they have proved more competitive than any pundit predicted. Dietmar Hamann’s criticism of Yaya Toure, describing him as a ‘liability’ on MOTD also raises the question of how much more pundits actually know than the general football-watching public, and this unpredictable season is proving exactly that, even for the experts.
- Fans shouldn’t be enraged by players’ gestures
This season has demonstrated that some football fans are perhaps oversensitive when it comes to players’ actions. Jack Wilshere’s tribulations, when making a gesture towards taunting Man City fans, as well as Theo Walcott’s smiling reminder of the score in front of Tottenham supporters in the FA Cup are interesting examples. Wilshere, who received a ban, was responding to City fans insulting his children, which begs the question why he was held accountable but no attempt was made to punish or reprimand the taunting supporters. And why was a ban necessary? If the supporters on the receiving end of the gesture were offended, it may be wise for them to consider what abuses they are shouting which warranted such a response. Equally Walcott (and I know it was in the Cup rather than the league) enraged fans to the point they threw coins and bottles at him and the medical staff carrying him off. The Spurs faithful, who were so incensed by the provocation, were moments earlier perfectly content to taunt Walcott for being injured, secure in their numbers that no individual could be singled out. Fans, who are always willing to give abuse, and which is more or less an accepted part of the game, must also learn to take what they dish out too, and to not overreact. JP
hmm manifesto 