World Cup Predictions

So finally we have reached the quarter final stage of this excellent World Cup, and many things have not turned out quite as expected in the long and tedious build up to the competition; Spain whimpering out, Costa Rica flying and only a few riots to see. Even the stadiums were ready on time. But now the real heavyweights are out to brawl it out to the bitter end as we edge ever closer to the finale. With many big names and a few swashbuckling new faces in the mix with no clear frontrunner, who will prevail and rise like a balloon in the wind to soar to victory, and who will burst and tumble back to earth? Here is my assessment of the contenders.

 

France

Key Player: In Karim Benzema they have an often impressive and occasionally infuriating front man. Despite always looking on the verge of tears, he has the ability to convert any half chance that presents itself and is a serious menace to the opposition, and I mean that in the nicest possible way.

How have they done? So far so good for Les Bleus. They battered Switzerland, were strong against the physical and often brutal Hondurans, and were comfortable enough against Ecuador knowing they had qualified already. They were also good against Nigeria and have looked the least troubled team so far in the competition.

Their chances? Pretty good, I think. They have quality players in every position and even have the luxury of having good players on the bench too (think Sagna for instance) and most importantly are looking like a coherent unit, in stark contrast to the mutinous and divided team of 2010. They have yet to be seriously tested but the manner in which they brushed aside Switzerland, who went on to scare Argentina, suggests they could have enough to beat the Germans.

So, their chances? (out of 10) Probably 9/10

Are you brave enough to make a prediction? Er sure, I boldly predict they will end up as champions. Brave start, huh?

 

Germany

Key Player: Per Mertesacker. Only joking. Thomas Muller. He’s fast, never seems to get tired and is remarkably good at being in the right place to grab a goal.

How have they done? It’s been a pretty mixed tournament so far for them. The destruction of Portugal aside (who were not helped by the actions of that perpetual maniac Pepe), they were exposed against Ghana and weren’t all that brilliant against the USA either. Needing extra time to overcome a spirited Algeria side is also not the greatest confidence booster, although finally prevailing does at least demonstrate great fitness and determination.

Their chances? They have looked good going forward and weak at the back. Joachim Loew’s perseverance with a high defensive line, despite having the plodding Mertesacker, also suggests a tactical ineptitude that must worry German fans. I also still don’t understand the desire to play Lahm in midfield, a position full of talented options like Kroos, Khedira and Shweinsteiger, instead of right back where a centre back has been forced to deputise, and could prove a weakness against a pacey French team. Neuer, who is determined to be an on-field player and acts like he’s in a five a side team, always seems likely to make a mistake at some point and either get sent off or be closer to the halfway line than his own goal whenever someone shoots. But they are good going forward and can potentially rectify their defensive weaknesses.

So, their chances? (out of 10) 7/10

Are you brave enough to make a prediction? Having said before that France will be runners up I have to say they’ll lose at the quarter final stage.

 

Brazil

Key Player: Neymar. The poster boy of the Brazil team, there is serious pressure on the young lad, and so far he has managed to perform.

How have they done? They have been decent if unexceptional. It took a penalty shootout to get past Chile, drew with Mexico and were average against Croatia and Cameroon. Admittedly Chile are a good team with tremendous energy and spirit, but were outwitted by the Dutch in the group stages so Brazil should perhaps have been expected to finish them off in normal time. They have a good team but have been dependent on Neymar for their trademark flair and skill and have not looked as big a threat as other Brazil teams in the past.

Their chances? They have a serious weakness in their goalkeeper and how they cope with the expectation is a perennial worry. Fred upfront has thus far been unconvincing and leaving Willian out of the team seems an oversight. However, they have done what has been required and with the vociferous support they enjoy they may well grow and become the threat they were last year in the Confederations Cup.

So, their chances? (out of 10) 8/10

Your brave prediction? Semi-finalists, obviously

 

Columbia

Key Player: James Rodriguez. Young and immensely talented, he has arguably been the tournament’s standout performer, and is rapidly building a big reputation for himself.

How have they done? Very well. They have coped with the absence of Falcao remarkably easily. Columbia cruised through the group stages, overcoming the all-out defence of Greece, battling through the Cote d’Ivoire and shrugging off Japan in some style. Rodriguez and co were unperturbed by the fired up Uruguayans, who were missing their talisman Suarez, and have looked in complete control throughout the tournament.

Their chances? They are looking good but are coming up against the home team who I think will just manage to see off Columbia. However, if Brazil push too far forward they are weak to Columbia’s pacey counter-attacks, so I see it being a close game.

So, their chances?  7/10

Prediction? Will just lose out to Brazil. But if they beat Brazil they’ll probably win it because beating the home favourites will be such a confidence boost they will be unstoppable afterwards.

 

Argentina

Key Player: Silly question. Messi.

How have they done? Alright. They are labouring and being made to work a lot harder than should be the case, but are limping through nonetheless. They had arguably the easiest group but struggled against Iran, were held off for a long while by Bosnia-Herzegovina and were run pretty close by Nigeria. This theme continued against Switzerland and they have not had the comfortable ride that was expected.

Their chances? I just don’t see it happening for them. Messi is good and all that but I don’t know if he is at his best when playing for his country for whatever reason, and I just cannot see him pulling Argentina through. Di Maria has also looked out of sorts, although did score that crucial goal in the last 16 so may gain confidence.

So, their chances?  6/10

Brave Prediction? Hmm tricky, but I reckon maybe lose at the quarters. Having said that this World Cup has been hard to predict so maybe Messi will score 20 goals and Argentina will triumph, but I just don’t feel like it is their time.

 

Belgium

Key Player: A difficult one, but probably Kompany since he is one of the best defenders out there and is a strong leader. He has also won stuff, which is a nice experience to share.

How have they done? Well apart from producing the best game of the World Cup against the USA they have looked far from the finished item. That said, they have always found a way to win and finish games strongly, and have been reliant upon some inspired substitutions to see off opponents.

Their chances? They look weak, very weak, and a strong team will send them home. That said, Argentina also look weak so hopefully we will get another match like the USA-Belgium game.

So, their chances? 6/10

Be brave; Meh, quarters or semis, nothing more and depends how they deal with Messi. Van Buyten is slow and plodding so maybe that won’t go so well.

 

Netherlands

Key Player: Robben. Ah Robben, no one seems to care about the fact he gets faster as he ages and focus instead on his terrible diving affliction. I personally don’t think he dives, he just doesn’t react to gravity in the same way the rest of us do, which explains why he sometimes launches into the air then crashes down unexpectedly. Poor Robben, he’s so misunderstood. He is a good player when upright though.

How have they done? On the whole pretty well. They humiliated the defending champions in the most unequivocal manner and have looked pretty strong since, seeing off Chile and Mexico (which had nothing to do with Robben’s affliction), both of whom caused Brazil problems. The wobble against plucky Australia aside they have been imperious.

Their chances? Pretty good. Very good in fact. Not only have they been in fine form but they have the easier half of the draw and are probably favourites to reach the final. They must continue to perform and utilise their two star players but they should do well.

So, their chances? 9/10

Prediction? Were you not paying attention before? As I said, finalists.

 

Costa Rica

Key Player: Good question. Joel Campbell maybe. He’s fast and hard to handle.

How have they done? Well, of course I saw this coming, but everybody else thought they’d be the whipping boys of the group, served up like a platter at a wedding for the hungry guests to devour without a second thought. But they should have paid attention because now England and Italy have gone home early with food poisoning and Uruguay did not last long either. So yeah they’ve done very well and exceeded all expectations. And I compare them to food-poisoning bacteria in the kindest and most complimentary way of course.

Their chances? Well, they were written off before and look how that turned out, but now they are facing a team in fine form and have proven they can punish teams. Do they have any more upsets left? I hope so because it is a great story but I do have my doubts.

So, their chances? (out of 10) 5/10

Prediction; To lose valiantly to the Netherlands sadly

Half time; the talking points from the Premier League

 

 

1. 1.       Arsenal can go all the way, but only if they start winning the big games

Most of the season so far has seen the MotD team writing off Arsenal’s title winning credentials, dismissing them as continuously lucky. The Alans Hansen and Shearer were not in the slightest put off by the fact, with every week Arsenal sat on top, they were being asked the question yet again, persisting in their belief Arsenal will not win. However, enough of the season has progressed to prove that Arsenal have the potential to be genuine competitors, with new found strength of character to slog through games to win even when their flowing football goes awry.  But for Arsenal to go all the way they must start to win more of the big games against their title contenders. The 6-3 annihilation at Man City exemplifies this point, although failing to win at home to Chelsea and Everton should also stand as examples. Even their failure to bring back points from Old Trafford, which is not the feat it would have been in recent seasons, shows up Arsenal’s weakness against strong opposition. This season’s incarnation of Arsenal are more than capable of holding their own against the biggest teams; look at the powerful display to beat Borussia Dortmund in Germany as proof of that. Arsenal cannot afford to give their opponents the advantage in such a close season, and to be the ones waving the trophy at the end of the season they must improve their record against the big teams.

1. 2.       City and Chelsea are favourites because of their home records

Following on from the previous point, Chelsea and Man City must be considered the strongest title contenders because of their indomitable home records. City’s imperious scoring record at home, with 38 goals and 10 wins from 10 home games is the best in the league. Chelsea, meanwhile, have Mourinho at the helm, and, while many criticisms can be levelled at the Portuguese manager, his home record with every club he’s managed is no small achievement or coincidence; a 150 game unbeaten home run from 2002 to 2011, across four clubs, and a current run of 41 home games without losing, with Real Madrid and Chelsea is a strong testament to Mourinho’s leadership. This gives them the advantage because both Chelsea and City expect to gain points from any opposition at home, making the problem for Arsenal in particular that they cannot steal victories from the big two away from the Emirates. This in turn puts enormous pressure on Wenger’s side to get maximum points at home, something they have struggled to do thus far. The near guarantee of home points provides a solid base from which to launch title challenges, and the records should not be overlooked.

1. 3.       Owners have no respect for fans, and money should not be the only qualifier for ownership

The first half of the season has made it clear exactly how much influence the most important part of any club, the fans, really have in an era of private ownership and global representation of the Premier League. Hull City AFC’s 110 year history as the name of the club looks set to be changed, against the wishes of the fans, by owner Assem Allam who considers City to be boring and claiming Hull Tigers is more marketable. The protests of the fans and even the intervention of manager Steve Bruce have fallen on death ears, to the point where Allam, on hearing of the protest group ‘City till we die’, exclaimed ‘they can die as soon as they want’[1]. Similarly Vincent Tan’s less than considerate attitude towards his latest acquisition, Cardiff City, demonstrates a worrying trend. Tan’s decision to turn the Bluebirds’ kit red, because he prefers red and for the colour’s cultural significance in Malaysia, is just one of many slights to the beleaguered supporters in the welsh capital. Tan’s actions have almost single handedly ruined what should have been a joyous maiden season in the Premier League. His undermining and finally sacking of popular Malky Mackay, and the display of unbelievable ignorance of football are sadly endemic of the ownership Premier League clubs today are saddled with. The Football Association has the final say on who buys a club, but more than wealth should be considered when the centre of a community is at stake.

1. 4.       English clubs are falling behind European rivals because of the number of competitive teams in the league

England has easily the most competitive domestic league in Europe, with Arsenal, Man United, Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and arguably Tottenham and Everton all being major contenders, both in the league and in the transfer market. This I see as a key problem for Premier League clubs when competing in Europe for several reasons. Firstly and most importantly, it spreads the limited pool of genuine world talent very thinly across the league, which is not the case in the Bundesliga or La Liga. There are a finite number of top players who are willing to work in the Premier League, as many, for language or family reasons, choose to stay away. But with so many competitive and wealthy teams, no club has really been able to establish a monopoly of talent. Compare this to Bayern Munich, who are the inevitable destination of world class talent in Germany; Gotze jumping from Borussia Dortmund, and the impending departure of Lewandowski to Bayern are symptomatic of this. Bayern’s ability to monopolise talent in Germany with little domestic competition in the transfer market is a major factor in their lasting success. Similarly, Barca and Real Madrid attract the major talent in Spain. Another way to look at it is to compile the League’s starting XI; The Premier League would be a monstrous opponent if the talent was pooled, but individual teams look set to struggle in Europe against the biggest continental sides. The second detriment of a competitive league is the conservation of players’ form and fitness over a season. English clubs cannot afford for their key players to rest or go easy for a few games, as any slip up could be the difference between first and sixth, such is the level of competition so far this season. This is not necessarily the case in Europe’s other major leagues. While it is true that Barca’s players statistically play at least as many games as Premier League squads (for example 11 players played 40+ in 2012/13 while 8 did for Man City) the level of competition they face each week is comparably worse, so one may assume the expenditure of effort of Barcelona’s squad is lower over a season than in England. I see this as a contributing factor when looking at the difference between English and other European clubs, especially when they meet in the latter half of the season.

1. 5.       Moyes’ decision to clean out backroom staff and alter a winning formula is his biggest gamble

Moyes was always going to struggle to replace the irreplaceable; Ferguson had had a quarter of a century to shape the club to suit his own style, so any change would take time. Moyes’ boldest decision, however, was to break even further with the past by removing Rene Meulensteen, the first team coach, Mike Phelan, the assistant manager, the goalkeeping coach Eric Steele and the chief scout Martin Ferguson in favour of his own men. While trying to forge the backroom staff in his own image, and moving to make it his, rather than SAF’s club, was bold but also a huge risk. The men he replaced could have acted as a safety net, a medium term solution to make the daunting task of reforming the club easier to manage by providing a link to the winning past. They also represented a highly successful formula, able to nurture the talent of the squad. In the long term Moyes, by placing his own people in these positions, may benefit, by making it clear it is his team, that things will be done his way and that he has the strength of character to look beyond the shadow of SAF. But in the short term he and his key staff are all locked in a battle to win over squad and fans alike, as well as to come to grips with a new club and a new level of pressure. The discarded staff represented a chance to lessen the level of changes, and Moyes’ move to ignore that chance may prove to be a serious error.

1. 6.       Buying in the January transfer window is a sign of desperation

The January Transfer window, which for many clubs has been a source of contention for a while, is arguably losing relevance. With Financial Fair Play coming in, the grossly inflated prices in January are scaring away even the most financially secure clubs, who instead look to reinforce in the summer. It is also widely acknowledged that a winter signing often struggles to replicate their earlier form after their move; think of Demba Ba and Fernando Torres. Even when players are unsettled, or looking for first team action to fight for an international call up, moves are increasingly unlikely, because clubs simply don’t want to pay the inflated transfer fees. This then leads to my point about desperation. Clubs that are willing to pay excessive fees with no guarantee of their new player’s form is a clear sign that a club is struggling and is desperate enough to try and buy their way out of it. QPR over recent seasons have shown the danger of this, with huge fees and an eye watering wages bill for mediocre players and ultimately relegation. It may even come to the point where clubs will not want to sign in January simply because of the ridicule they’ll receive, although it is unlikely. But ultimately, the quiet January can be attributed to the fact that clubs will only do deals in January if they see no alternative, and have the financial muscle power to get away with it.

1. 7.       Entertaining football now comes before winning

The Premier League is often considered the most entertaining league in the world, and that has certainly been the case so far this season. Much of this is down to the emphasis on forward, attacking play. It can be argued that the various owners and fans demand attacking play to the extent that it is almost getting precedence over results. Take for example Cardiff, whose owner Tan, while being nothing of a football man, as previously discussed, rebuked Malky Mackay in his infamous email for not playing entertaining football. How dare he try and win matches? This, you may think, is just because Tan is unrealistic, but also take into account the removal of Tony Pulis from Stoke, despite almost guaranteeing the Potters Premier League status each season. Fans demand to be entertained, and it is not just the lower teams; even the great Jose Mourinho, who has made strategic, some may negative football, an art form. The 4-3 win against Sunderland is the most notably uncharacteristic Mourinho result to date. Prior to the game against Arsenal, Mourinho seemed to be wrestling with the need to win and the demand to entertain, saying “We may have to take a step back in order to be more consistent at the back… I’m giving it serious thought. If I want to win 1-0, I think I can, as I think it’s one of the easiest things in football.”[2] It is a sign of the importance associated with entertaining football that Mourinho must struggle with the priority of winning and the demand to entertain.

1. 8.       Pundits don’t know as much as they think

The match pundits, comprised of such footballing legends as Alan Shearer and Roy Keane often present their opinions, based on little more information than the average football fan, as an infallible truth. However, over the season it has finally become clear how knowledge as a footballer doesn’t necessarily translate into punditry. Michael Owen, who regularly professes on twitter that he has forgotten more about football than most people will ever know[3], seems no better at predicting or analysing than anyone else who cares about football. Take for example his criticisms of Arsenal; that they lack world  class players, that Ӧzil is overrated, are not a top four side and are a smaller club than Liverpool. These all seem, for someone who knows so much about football, rather questionable attitudes and, regarding Liverpool and Arsenal’s respective sizes, somewhat biased on Owen’s part. Of course, Owen may eventually be vindicated regarding Arsenal’s top four position, but they have proved more competitive than any pundit predicted. Dietmar Hamann’s criticism of Yaya Toure, describing him as a ‘liability’ on MOTD also raises the question of how much more pundits actually know than the general football-watching public, and this unpredictable season is proving exactly that, even for the experts.

1. Fans shouldn’t be enraged by players’ gestures

This season has demonstrated that some football fans are perhaps oversensitive when it comes to players’ actions. Jack Wilshere’s tribulations, when making a gesture towards taunting Man City fans, as well as Theo Walcott’s smiling reminder of the score in front of Tottenham supporters in the FA Cup are interesting examples. Wilshere, who received a ban, was responding to City fans insulting his children, which begs the question why he was held accountable but no attempt was made to punish or reprimand the taunting supporters. And why was a ban necessary? If the supporters on the receiving end of the gesture were offended, it may be wise for them to consider what abuses they are shouting which warranted such a response. Equally Walcott (and I know it was in the Cup rather than the league) enraged fans to the point they threw coins and bottles at him and the medical staff carrying him off. The Spurs faithful, who were so incensed by the provocation, were moments earlier perfectly content to taunt Walcott for being injured, secure in their numbers that no individual could be singled out. Fans, who are always willing to give abuse, and which is more or less an accepted part of the game, must also learn to take what they dish out too, and to not overreact. JP

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[1] http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/hull-city-critics-can-die-2871545

[2] http://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/dec/18/jose-mourinho-chelsea-tactics-results-football

[3] Twitter, 7 Jan 2014